Unfortunately, the original host of this blog went out of service without any announcement, losing several earlier posts.
As I am writing this, all the legal mitigations for CoViD-19 are being dropped in England. I am in the group which government statistics say has contributed about 75% of the deaths from CoViD-19 in the UK and the USA. You can imagine that I might be just a little worried about the coming changes announced by the UK government.
I have been very cautious over the past two years since CoViD-19 arrived in the UK because I have a couple of the “co-morbidities” that suggest I might have more trouble than most people if I caught it. When the prevalence of the disease became very low here, in the summer of 2021, I started going out again. That was a short-lived respite; the Delta variant came storming in, closely followed in by Omicron, so I once more returned to delivered groceries and no trips further than my garden gate.
There is no doubt that the prevalence of CoViD-19 is decreasing, but in London, where I live, it is now still between 1 in 15 and 1 in 20. This means that if I go to the local supermarket, I can expect that there will be between 7 and 10 active cases of CoViD-19 walking in the aisles around me spreading their viral gifts into the air I must breathe.
Stopping an active testing regime offering free and freely available lateral flow tests is a very poor move; even people who want to be socially responsible and stay at home for a few days if ill will be deterred from checking their status if they must buy the test kits. When the testing regime is being reduced, we cannot be sure if the reported decline is real or is due to the testing reduction. On the positive side, at least the excellent National Statistical Office random population testing for CoViD-19 will remain active in some form, although the details of that are unclear. The NSO data and estimates, which are broken down to the local community level, lets those of us who need to assess the risk of going out do so.
Relying on people to wear masks voluntarily is not a great change either. Many people find masks irritating for various reasons, but peer-reviewed evidence shows that proper medical-grade paper masks help to reduce transmission of CoViD-19; the FP-3 grade is best but lower grades also help. A bonus to mask wearing is that good masks also help against influenza, colds, and other airborne viruses as many people in the far-east have recognised for years. Reducing the prevalence of influenza and heavy colds would help the economy by reducing time off work and could save the NHS significant amounts every winter. It is not a big ask that people should carry masks and use them when around others. You really can get used to them, after all we get used to clothing on other parts of our bodies. It is simply common sense to use good masks when the prevalence of any airborne illness is high.
I suppose that when the take-at-home anti-viral pills become available I will have some assurance that I have the power to mitigate the impact of the virus if, like around 30-40% of the current cases, I catch CoViD-19 despite having all the vaccinations and top-ups.
It is a worrying place out there, keep safe.